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The feasibility of daily, weekly and ten-day water-level forecasting in Colombia
Viabilidad para pronósticos hidrológicos de niveles diarios, semanales y decadales en Colombia
Keywords:
hydrological forecasting, mathematical modelling, optimal linear adaptive combination (en)pronósticos hidrológicos, modelación matemática, combinaciones lineales adaptativamente óptimas (es)
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This paper analyses the feasibility of forecasting daily, weekly and ten-day water-levels at 20 hydrological stations forming part of the monitoring network supporting the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies' (IDEAM) Alert Service in Colombia (http://www.ideam.gov.co). Such viability was determined by a set of orthogonal performance criteria and implementing optimally adaptive linear combinations (OALC) was recommended for this study as a viable operator for configuring a real-time hydrological forecast system. It is shown that the forecast for daily, weekly and ten-day levels had satisfactory viability for 70% of the cases studied.
El presente artículo analiza y concluye sobre la viabilidad de pronósticos hidrológicos de niveles diarios, semanales y decadales en 20 estaciones hidrológicas de la red de monitoreo hidrometeorológico que soporta al Servicio de Alertas del Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales – Ideam en Colombia (http://www.ideam.gov.co). Esta viabilidad se determina a través de un conjunto de criterios de desempeño ortogonales y para el presente estudio recomienda la aplicación de combinaciones lineales adaptativamente óptimas (CLAO) como operador viable para la configuración de un sistema de pronóstico hidrológico en tiempo real de niveles diarios, semanales y decadales. En conclusión, se muestra que los pronósticos de niveles diarios, semanales y decadales tienen una viabilidad de pronóstico satisfactoria para el 70% de los casos estudiados.
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